Who gets the seats?
A seat forecast for New Zealand's 7 November 2026 election, built from the polls, 71 electorate contests and every party list.
The most likely Parliament
Running simulations…
Polling, seat ranges and chancesThe detail behind each party's number
| Party | Polling | Most likely seats | 80% range | Range | Chance in Parliament |
|---|
"Most likely seats" is the middle result across all simulations; 80% of runs fall inside the range. The diagram shows the single simulated Parliament closest to the middle result, so you can see actual MPs.
The simulation
The forecast plays out the election thousands of times, each with a slightly different party vote and electorate results, and counts how often each outcome happens . The cards below are the factors that decide who can govern. Each bar shows how much a factor moves the odds; open a card to see why it matters and to change it.
Opportunity hasn't picked a side. Both Luxon and Hipkins are telling their voters not to give Opportunity their party vote, and Luxon has ruled out working with it. Opportunity's leader, Qiulae Wong, says she'll approach whichever major party gets the biggest party vote.
Parties near 5% often lose votes at the end, as supporters worry a vote for them will be wasted, and both Labour and National are telling their supporters not to vote Opportunity. Choose where the switchers go; the shares rebalance to add up to 100%.
A party needs 5% of the party vote or an electorate to get any list seats. Under 5%, Opportunity's MPs vanish and their seats are shared among everyone else, which is why its vote and its side decide so much.
Overhang: more electorates won than the party vote earns. They're all kept, Parliament grows, and no list MPs get in.
Under MMP the party vote sets how many seats a party gets. Electorate winners fill those seats first and list MPs fill the rest. If a party wins more electorates than its party vote earns, it keeps them all and Parliament grows to fit them. Those are overhang seats, and each one raises the number needed for a majority.
Hover over each option for what it means. Polls usually miss the final result by a few points, and misses often favour one side: in some elections the National-led parties beat their polling, in others the Labour-led parties do. Each simulation draws its own miss, so this setting controls how wide the range of outcomes is.
"Off" turns the simulations off: you get one result using the poll exactly as published, with every electorate going to its favourite, and every chance shows as 0% or 100%.
Te Pāti Māori is campaigning only for electorate votes, and its list has one name. Its party vote is worth one or two seats, so each Māori electorate it holds beyond that adds a seat to the House and raises the bar for a majority. Call these seats to test it.
Mariameno Kapa-Kingi (Te Tai Tokerau Party) and Tākuta Ferris (independent) both left Te Pāti Māori. A win for either adds a seat to the House, counted here as "Independent / other". Neither has committed to a side: Kapa-Kingi has said she'd consider working with National (1News), and Ferris urges a party vote for the left but would work with the current coalition (The Spinoff), so they sit with the kingmakers unless you move them. Call these seats to test it.
Polls are a snapshot from a few weeks out. Each party's trend is a straight line through all the polls since early August. At 100%, that trend carries on for the remaining days to 7 November.
Adjust every party's vote
Electorate seats
Chances are my estimates from each seat's 2023 result (or its predecessor's), the national swing since, candidates, retirements and the five electorate polls published. They shift with the party vote you set. Tap a candidate to call the seat for them; tap again to hand it back to the model. Called seats are fixed in every simulation.
Party list outcome
Electorate winners take a party's seats first; the rest go down its list, skipping anyone already elected. Projections use the most likely Parliament above; chances come from all simulations.
| # | Candidate | Standing in | Projection | Chance in |
|---|
More tools: what extra votes would do
What would extra votes do?
Pick a party and move its party vote up or down. Every party's seats are shown together, so you can see who gains and who pays for it. Everyone else's votes and the electorate results stay fixed.
Traditional government blocs
The usual coalition groupings used in the main forecast: a Labour-led bloc, a National-led bloc, and kingmakers in between. Labour and National always lead their blocs; Opportunity's side is set in the simulation section above.
Custom blocs
Build your own groupings to test any coalition. Tick parties to add them. Results use the same simulations as the rest of the page, so they update instantly. A party can be in more than one custom bloc, so you can compare alternatives side by side.
Polls to 13 Oct 2026 (latest: 1News–Verian, 8–12 Oct). Candidates and lists from the Electoral Commission's 9 Oct release, via Wikipedia. Seats use the Sainte-Laguë formula over 120 seats; overhang seats are added on top. Te Pāti Māori's list has one name, so list entitlement beyond that is left vacant. Electorate chances are estimates, and the whole page illustrates uncertainty rather than predicting a result.